Posts tagged ‘CALIFORNIA 30TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT IN THE WEST SAN FERNANDO VALLEY CANDIDATES 2012’

March 30, 2012

Red Racing Horses Analysis:: Congressional Candidates Sherman, Berman & Reed in CA’s West San Fernando Valley

CA-30

CALIFORNIA 30TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT IN THE WEST SAN FERNANDO VALLEY   CANDIDATES 2012 Sherman, Berman & Mark Reed
Fun fun fun. There are actually three Democrats here, Congressman Howard Berman, Congressman Brad Sherman, and Vince Gilmore, along with three Republicans, Mark Reed, Susan Shelley, and Navraj Singh. Throw in a Green, Michael Powelson, and there’s potential chaos. The Democrats can expect to divide up about 58% of the vote, while the Republicans should get around 40%. If Mark Reed is a strong candidate he should easily get the 30% he needs to advance. So the two Democratic congressmen need to go hard here.

If Reed gets that 30%, then one of the congressmen will win in June and can coast in November. If Reed is denied that 30%, and instead gets 23-25%, then both Sherman and Berman could advance. The Democrats can’t count on that happening, so they need to go hard in June.

Whoever is leading will want Reed to do well and ensure that easy race. Whoever is losing will want Shelley to take a lot of votes from Reed, so that he’ll have another shot. Do the Democrats try to determine the Republican race or ignore it and go all out?

I’m going to predict both Brad Sherman and Mark Reed get over 30% and go to November.

via Red Racing Horses:: California Qualified Candidate Analysis CDs 27-53.

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