Obama’s Economic 2009 Jobs Projection: A complete Failure – Smoking Gun – How to destroy a nation.

Another Example of a Failed Keynesian Economic Plan

The following is a excerpt from a NY Times article by Obama worshiper Paul Krugman touting the Administration’s fantasy economics and projecting a successful Keynesian Economic Plan of sucking capital out of the private sector and injecting it directly into the pockets of the “Frieds of Barack” coalition that got him elected. You know, the Communist led International Unions and the UPSD ‘Uninformed Poverty Stricken Dependents” and the media that also fantasize about meeting and sleeping with their dreamboat celebrity god.

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Romer and Bernstein on stimulus

by Paul Krugman, January 10, 2009

OK, Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein have put out the official (?) Obama estimates of what the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan would accomplish. The figure above summarizes the key result.

Kudos, by the way, to the administration-in-waiting for providing this — it will be a joy to argue policy with an administration that provides comprehensible, honest reports, not case studies in how to lie with statistics.

That said, the report is written in such a way as to make it hard to figure out exactly what’s in the plan. This also makes it hard to evaluate the reasonableness of the assumed multipliers. But here’s the thing: the estimates appear to be very close to what I’ve been getting.

The key thing if you want to do comparisons is to note that I made estimates of the average effect over 2009-2010, while they do estimates of effect in the fourth quarter of 2010, which is roughly when the plan is estimated to have its maximum effect. So they say the plan would lower unemployment by about 2 percentage points, I said 1.7, but their estimate may actually be a bit more pessimistic than mine. They have the plan raising GDP by 3.7 percent, but that’s at peak; I thought 2.5 percent or so average over 2 years, again not much difference.

So this looks like an estimate from the Obama team itself saying — as best as I can figure it out — that the plan would close only around a third of the output gap over the next two years.

One more point: the estimate of what would happen to the economy in the absence of a stimulus plan seems kind of optimistic. The chart above has unemployment ex-stimulus peaking at 9 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and coming down through the year; the CBO estimates an average unemployment rate of 9 percent for 2010, so the Obama people are more optimistic than the CBO, and a lot more optimistic than I am.

Bottom line: even if I use the Romer-Bernstein estimates instead of my own — there really isn’t much difference — this plan looks too weak.

via Romer and Bernstein on stimulus – NYTimes.com.

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